WEEK 2 PREVIEW

     If you're into sheer, utter, disorderly, chaos, then Thursday through Sunday's events may have felt like a Utopia for you. The events of last week led to no perfect brackets, 3 double digits in the sweet 16, and more then half of the sweet 16 coming from 3 conferences (Big Ten, Pac 10, SEC, 3 each). Each team remaining only stands 2 games away from the Final 4, 4 games away from a National Title. This blog will include a reflection on lasts weeks predictions, and some new ones as well. 

Things I got right

The Dark Horses: Of the 5 teams I named as my Dark Horse contenders last week, 3 of them made the sweet 16. Dayton proved they belong in the Dance with emotional, last second, hard-fought victories over Ohio State and Syracuse. They now present themselves with a prime opportunity against 10th seeded Stanford on Thursday in Memphis. Baylor turned some heads with the 30 point beating of Doug McDermott and Creighton and should definately not be counted out of winning the West. And Uconn rode Shabazz Napier to the Sweet 16 and now gets 2 games in Madison Square Garden, which is the closest thing to a home game you can ask for. Oregon put up a valiant effort, and it looked like my 4th Dark Horse would make the sweet 16 before Wisconsin shot lights out the last 20 minutes. Oklahoma State was my lone mistake.

The weakness of the Big East: I made the claim no Big East schools would make it past the sweet 16. That bet is already correct seeing as no Big East schools made the Sweet 16, and went a combined 2-4 in the tournament. Creighton was probably the most disappointing, getting ran out of the building in the 2nd worst deficit of the tournament. Not much better can be said for 'Nova or Xavier, who lost by double digits against teams seeded 7th or higher. Providence gets the most respect for playing UNC to the wire, though a 2nd round exit is nothing to be proud of by any means.

The 12's: The 12 seeds went 3-1, and would have gone 4-0 if N.C. State could make free throws. To play Devil's advocate, they did all lose in the following round, but it was a good run nevertheless. Harvard was the best performance in my opinion, beating an athletic Cincinnati team and then giving Michigan State a real scare by not quitting in the 2nd half. Stephen F. Austin gets an honorable mention for the 4 point play over time thriller.

The Favorites: My main bracket still has all of its Final 4 and 6 of its elite 8 still in tact. Kansas and Duke were my only mistakes there. My Final 4 are Florida, Michigan State, Louisville, and Arizona and that still looks fairly reasonable as of now, though I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Uconn to shock the world.

Things I got Wrong

Stanford: When I was considering Cinderellas and Dark Horses, Stanford didn't cross my mind for one second. I did have Dayton in that region and if you'd asked me for a 2nd Dark Horse in that region I would have told you New Mexico. The Cardinal completely shocked me with the win over Kansas and now they have a legitimate shot of getting to the Elite 8. Props to those who called this, you are a rare breed.

Duke: But weren't we all? The Blue Devils are a perennial Final 4 contender but every so often they do something really disappointing. I thought after 2012's slip up against Lehigh Duke would be ok for a few years but Mercer had other ideas. No complaints though, small schools knocking off Duke displays March Madness in its finest form.

The Strength of the SEC: The SEC stands alone as the only perfect conference remaining in the tournament at 7-0. To be fair, aside from knocking off Wichita State, all of their wins came against teams seeded 9th or lower, but quite an accomplishment regardless. Florida's path to North Texas looks pretty favorable, Kentucky and Tennessee will face their toughest tests though with the defending National Title and Runner Up all meeting up this weekend. 

The Weakness of the ACC: A conference that had 6 bids and 3 top 3 seeds in the tournament only sends one school to the Sweet 16 (conference champ Virginia). What makes it even tougher is the fact all losses besides Pittsburg came down to the last shot. Syracuse had a 1 point loss to Dayton, N.C. State lost in OT to St. Louis via missed free throws, North Carolina blew a late lead to Iowa State, and Duke let Mercer slip right through their fingers.

Ranking the Top 16

16. San Diego State: It's not the Aztec's did anything wrong, it's that they did nothing to truly impress me in their run to the Sweet 16 and that's why they rank last on my list. Beating North Dakota State and New Mexico State really doesn't say much and Arizona is going to be a whole different ball game for the Aztecs. While a Sweet 16 appearance has certainly been a nice consolation to last years early exit at the hands of 14th seeded Harvard, I don't see it going any further.

15. UCLA: Like San Diego State, the Bruins made it to Memphis by knocking out low seeded mid-major schools Tulsa and Stephen F. Austin. The Bruins earned their 4 seed by winning the Pac-12 tournament and knocking out heavyweight Arizona, so they shouldn't be ruled out by any means. There's no weak links left at this point in the season, but I'm unsure if UCLA has the fire power to get past the tenacious D of UF. Though if they do, they'll be a heavy favorite to get to the Final 4.

14. Stanford: What the Cardinal pulled off this past week was spectacular, reaching the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2008. But when you reflect on it, they beat an overseeded New Mexico team and then a Kansas team playing without Joel Embiid, who would have been a top 3 pick had he stayed healthy. Johnny Dawkins may have saved his job with this run, and he relies on upperclassmen leadership from Chasson Randle and Dwight Powell to keep it going. But veteran leadership has historically been one of the greatest advantages in the NCAA tournament, it could certainly prove very valuable against mid major Dayton on Thursday.

13. Dayton: Which brings me to Dayton. On the one hand, the Flyers reached the sweet 16 by defeating 2 overseeded, struggling teams. On the contrary, Dayton knocked off two of the best programs in College Basketball today. Dayton prevented Ohio State from reaching its 5th straight Sweet 16 and then knocked off future Hall of Famer Jim Boehiem and the Syracuse Orange to set up a date with Stanford in Memphis. The Flyers are one of the hottest teams in the nation right now, the last team they lost to a team not named St. Joseph's was over 2 months ago. Dayton fought hard to make the tournament, and that same work ethic has carried them to the Sweet 16 as the last standing team from the state of Ohio. I think I see an Elite 8 in Dayton's future as well.

12. Kentucky: I may be once again under rating Kentucky and the SEC, but I feel like people are overrating them due to 2 good games: a close loss to Florida and a win against a Wichita State team who played no one all year. Before that, I think we all expected better from Coach Calipari and his annually high ranked recruiting class, and 2 games isn't enough to sell me on the Wildcats. I will however say this: Kentucky does have a new found confidence with their young talent, and they'll definitely be fired up to go play in state rival and defending national champ Louisville on Friday, a team they already beat earlier this year. If we see that team, a possible final 4 fun could be in store. If we see the Kentucky team that got beat twice by Arkansas, then Friday might be the end of the road.

11. Uconn: Statistically, the odds of Uconn winning the National Championship were less than 1% when the tournament began, but it seems to become more and more believable with each game the Huskies play. Shabazz Napier reminds us that 1 player can spark a surreal tournament run for an underdog (Kemba Walker anyone?). His 24 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals were just enough to help the Huskies clear St. Joe's, and then his 21 2nd half points were enough to carry the Huskies past Villanova on Saturday. If Napier doesn't show up to play in 1 of these next 4 games, Uconn can pack their bags. If the Huskies can milk him for all he's worth, they'll have at least a chance no matter who they play. 

#10 Tennessee: Like Dayton, Tennessee is a hot team peaking at the right time. The Vols have won 9 out of 10 with the only loss coming to the top seeded Gators by single digits. Though the play-in game is no advantage, it seems as if it's given Tennessee a sense of confidence having won an extra tournament game than everyone else. The down side of this is none of those victories were anything to get overly excited about (Umass, Xavier, and Mercer). Michigan will certainly test Tennessee in ways their SEC opponents could not, but Tennessee certainly has a chance with its level of confidence and emotional pull. 

#9. Wisconsin: Many of us thought the Badgers were done trailing Oregon by 12 and allowing 49 points in the half. Then the Badgers all found the same rhythm and shot lights out to mount the comeback and book their Sweet 16 ticket. Bo Ryan has put together the best offensvie Wisconsin team I've ever seen, but their downfall will be their inability to play Final 4 quality defense against teams like Baylor and Arizona. However, if we see Wisconsin play similar basketball to their 2nd half against Oregon, all bets are off.

#8 Baylor: If winning 8 out of 9 wasn't enough, the 30 point statement win against Creighton should have helped you wake up and smell the roses. The Bears might be the most confident team in the field right now, rebounding from a 1-6 conference start all the way to the Sweet 16. They won their first 2 games by an average of 22 points and are playing sound on both sides of the ball. I think their ability to play both offense and defense can carry them past Wisconsin and give them a real chance against Arizona as well. Baylor is the dark horse to win this entire tournament right now.

#7 Iowa State: The Big 12 tournament allowed Iowa State to reach its peak and play with a lot of confidence. Furthermore there's no quit in them, as 2nd half comebacks have become sort of a regular thing for Iowa State over the last few weeks. The one thing that may rain on the parade for the Cyclones is the season ending injury to starting power forward Georges Niang, who fractured his foot Thursday against NC Central. Niang was a key component of the Cyclone's late success, he averaged over 20 points per game in the Cyclone's last 5 games leading up to the tournament, 16.4 on the entire season. Iowa State is still very good without Niang, and was still able to pull it together and score a comeback victory over UNC on Sunday. But to imagine the Cyclones still winning a national championship without a starter and leading scorer is a bit tough. 

#6 Michigan: Honestly I could see the top 6 going in any order, that's how competitive college basketball has been this year. Michigan gets the short end of the stick because I don't believe they are as good as they were last year. Wolverine fans will miss Burke's ability to step up and take over a game and the superstar level of Burke and Hardaway Jr isn't quite matched by Stauskus & co. I could be wrong, more team oriented basketball could be just what the Wolverines need to get over the hump and win a national title, like I said, this was a real toss up.

#5 Arizona: Arizona finds themselves in a good position by playing great offense and defense. The Wildcats have all the tools of a team that can win it all, they're athletic, deep, defend well for 40 minutes, and have multiple guys who can score in double figures on a consistent basis. Sure the Wildcats let Weber State hang around in the opening round, that was expected. The 23 point win over Gonzaga was what really got people believing in this team's ability again. They should beat the Aztecs, then we'll see what happens against Wisconsin or Baylor.

#4. Louisville: So I'll be honest, I had the Cardinals winning the whole thing. But after less than impressive victories over Manhattan and St. Louis I'm not as sure as I was when we started this thing. We can call Manhattan almost beating the Cardinals a fluke and the result of almost identical play styles, but then again the Jaspers shot 45% against one of the best defenses in the country. In the following round Louisville was able to escape due in part to the Billikens poor shooting (0/15 from 3). I am a firm believer that in order to win this tournament, you do have to win at least one game you don't really deserve. Louisville may have done it twice. The rest of the field had their chance, it may be time for the Cardinals to wreak havoc.

#3. Virginia: The ACC's last hope is also one of the strongest teams left in this field. The Cavs played consistently great basketball all year and hit their peak in the conference tournament. The opening half against Coastal Carolina was rather concerning, but everything after that to this point was reassuring. UVA has a lot going for them: they limit their turnovers, they play incredible defense, and they can score in a variety of ways. This team is fundamentally sound, but their Achilles Heel at the end of the day may be the inexperience of both the players and the coaching staff. Sweet 16's are a relatively new concept to Virginia after all.

#2. Michigan State: Now that Sparty is finally healthy again, it's returned to championship caliber form. They have probably the best coach in the field in Tom Izzo, who's reached 6 Final 4's. Branden Dawson is alive again, and Adrien Payne has led the offense after scoring 41 against Delaware. The highest scoring performance in a tournament game in 10 years. The Spartans offense has been functioning like a well oiled machine, shooting over 50% for the tournament thus far. The lone concern going forward is the ability to take care of the ball. The Spartans turned it over 25 times in the first week of play, a number to be concerned about as Sparty faces defensively sound Virginia on Friday.

#1. Florida: This pains me to write as an FSU student, but Florida is playing the best basketball right now. Sure the first half against Albany was rocky, but it's looked pretty damn good since then. The Gators won both of their first 2 games by double digits, held teams to 55 points or less, and forced teams to play thier style with their full game full court pressure. They're athletic and filled with guys who can score and make big shots and that's why they haven't lost since December 2nd. The Gators are excelling in every fundamental of the game, and the road ahead looks bright with only UCLA and a double digit seed standing between them and the Final 4. Elite 8's have been UF's kryptonite in recent years, but I don't think Dayton or Stanford have what it takes to beat this version of UF. The SEC schedule was weak, but Florida did well to prepare itself for this point by scheduling a brutal non conference schedule that included Kansas, Wisconsin, Uconn, and Memphis; 4 teams who all made the 3rd round. I can't say for certain Florida will win this tournament, but a Final 4 trip seems pretty likely.

NCAA TOURNAMENT CRYSTAL BALL

     "Spontaneous", "Inconsistent", and "Unpredictable" are all words that accurately depict the 2013-14 NCAA Division 1 college basketball regular season. The same adjectives can be used to describe pretty much any NCAA tournament. This time of year leaves America buzzing, as millions of people will be filling out brackets in work pools, against their peers, and/or online. 2014 is even more significant because Warren Buffet and Quicken Loans have offered $1 billion to 15 million challengers who will attempt to fill out a perfect bracket. Regardless, the NCAA tournament is the greatest tournament in all of sports, in fact if I were in charge the first 2 days would be federal holidays. While I will not be providing a carbon copy of my bracket, I have included 5 bold predictions, 5 Dark Horse teams to watch for, and 5 Upset Alerts for the first slate of games.

5 Bold Predictions:

1. Wichita State will not make the Final 4: I'd be crying myself to sleep if my team was in the Midwest region. The top 4 seeds are Wichita State, Michigan, Duke, and Louisville. Three of these teams made the Final 4 last year, (the fourth is Duke), 3 of them won their regular season and/or conference tournaments, one of them is 32-0. All good things must come to an end, and what goes up must come down, so I feel Wichita's streak is subject to a ticking time bomb at this point. The Shockers also finished a whopping 0-0 against RPI top 25 teams, and only have 1 win against a tournament team (Tennessee: one of the last teams into the field). Between their "soft as a pillow" regular season schedule and the level of competition in the midwest region, I strongly urge you to not pick Wichita State to win this region.

2. A 12 Seed will beat a 5 seed: It's happened 12 of the last 13 years so it might not be completely accurate to call this a BOLD prediction. But when I look across the board I see overrated 5's and underrated 12's. St. Louis for example, has dropped 4 of it's last 5. VCU is also streaky, and Oklahoma really hasn't done anything special all year. Now lets evaluate the 12's. Stephen F. Austin has a 28 GAME WIN STREAK (that's longer the Florida's), Harvard is a dangerous 12 seed who made it to the 3rd round last year as a 14 seed and I think N.C. State showed how dangerous they are this past week in Greensboro. 

3. A "Play-In-Game" Team will make the 3rd Round: Also not too bold since it's happened once every year since the reformation from 65 to 68. I'll reiterate N.C. State, they beat Syracuse and played Duke to the last minute. They have (in my opinion) one of the 15 best players in the nation in T.J. Warren and certainly one of the best scorers. If they beat Xavier, they get a struggling St. Louis team next. I would also advise considering Tennessee. The Vols had won 5 in a row before falling to UF in the SEC semi finals and are playing their best basketball. Their play in game is against Iowa, who had lost 6 out of 7. The winner then gets UMass, an overrated 6th seed out of the A10.

4. No Big East School's Past the Sweet 16: Now this is a bold prediction. The Big East dominated the NCAA tournament before the realignment. Now the conference only has 4 teams in the field (Villanova, Creighton, Providence, Xavier). The only real threats I see in that group are 'Nova and Creighton. Villanova's path to the Elite 8 would be a difficult one, even as a 2 seed, as it includes the Uconn/St. Joe's winner and then likely either Iowa State or North Carolina. Creighton has the more favorable path as a 3 seed in the West, Creighton lives and dies by Doug McDermott and one bad game from him may be all it takes to send the Jays home early. 

5. No Perfect Brackets in America after Sunday: Let's face reality guys, the odds of getting a perfect NCAA tournament bracket are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. That’s 9.2 quintillion. If everyone on earth filled out 100 brackets, it would theoretically take 13 million years to get a perfect bracket.  If all the world’s population filled out just one bracket, it could take 1.3 billion years. That means dinosaurs that lived 65 million years ago could have been filling out brackets and we’d still just be 5% of the way to perfection. Every year there's that one team that likes to rain on everyone's parade. The names Florida Gulf Coast, George Mason, and Butler should definately ring a bell. If anyone has a perfect bracket still running going into next week I'll be greatly shocked.

5 Dark Horses

1. Oklahoma State: Many people forget that at one point this year the Cowboys were a top 5 team. They have possibly the best player in America in Marcus Smart and if you factor out his suspension the Cowboys were 20-8, 8-7 in the Big 12. Of their 12 losses, 4 came in overtime, and all but 2 were by 6 points or less. Without the suspension this team was probably a 6/7 seed at worst. Now they sit at a very dangerous 9. If you're looking to knock out a 1 seed early, your best pick is Oklahoma State over Arizona.

2. Uconn: Every so often we see that 1 player who has a chance to absolutely take over the tournament. Kemba Walker, Steph Curry, and even Larry Bird are great examples. Shabazz Napier has the potential to be "that guy" in 2014. Napier leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists, and he had a habit of hitting big shots. Uconn is playing its best basketball as of late, and they have all the tools. We've already pointed out Napier, Boatright is also an underrated, talented guard, Brimah is a monster in the paint and makes it difficult for other teams to score, Giffey is shooting lights out, and Daniels is versatile as well. Uconn expected at least a 5 seed after making the AAC championship, disrespecting them by offering them a 7 may have awakened the beast.

3. Baylor: Baylor peaked in the Big 12 tournament, which we thought they would win before Iowa State made their 2nd half charge. Prior to that the Bears had won 10 of their last 11 and seem to really have it going during the right time of year. They're a good rebounding team and their size and athleticism should continue to give opponents trouble. The Bears are the most dangerous 6 seed in the field, and they've been placed in the weakest region (Wisconsin, Creighton, Nebraska). An Elite 8 run is definitely in the realm of possibility for Baylor.

4. Dayton: A lot of people feel Dayton should not have even been in the tournament. I on the other hand see a real opportunity for the Flyers to make some noise. The last time Dayton lost to a team not named St. Joseph's was back on January 25th. They also have a favorable draw. They'll stark with a streaky Ohio State team, then play a slumping Syracuse team, and then possibly a Kansas team without Joel Embiid if they haven't been knocked out already. With people frowning upon Dayton's entry should allow Dayton to play with a chip on its shoulder, making them a tough match up for any team.

5. Oregon: Remember when Oregon was 3-8 in the Pac-12? No team had quite the late turn around the Ducks had, who then won 8 straight (including a win over top seed Arizona) before losing to eventual Pac-12 tournament champion Arizona. Like Baylor, the Ducks are a team peaking at the right time of year. They sit in the same weak draw as Baylor which as I stated earlier is a draw of opportunity for a high seed to make some noise. Let's not forget last year's sweet 16 run as an 11 seed.

5 Upset Alerts

Stephen F. Austin over VCU: The last time SFA lost a game was before Thanksgiving. The Lumberjacks post the nations 3rd best record at 31-2, only behind top seeds Florida and Wichita State. They've won 28 straight, but they also played one of the weakest schedules in Divison 1. Seriously, kudos to playing the 319th toughest schedule, weakest of any team in the tournament. Regardless, SFU's 28 game win streak can't be overlooked and VCU lost 4 of its last 11 as well so there is opportunity for an upset here. 

Dayton over Ohio State: You probably saw this coming with Dayton as one of my dark horse picks. Not only is this a tournament game, but it's also an in-state rivalry, the only in-state match up in the 2nd round. All the emotional pull favors Dayton, a small Ohio school trying to knock out it's older brother from the Big Ten. Ohio State has made 4 straight Sweet 16 appearances, the longest of any in the country and there's some pressure in protecting that streak. Regardless, the winner of this game has a good chance against Syracuse too.

N.C. State over St. Louis: I can go ahead and lock this in now since N.C. State took care of Xavier in Tuesday's play in game. The Wolfpack are working hard to prove they belong in this field, their hard work in Greensboro earned them the tournament's very last invitation. It's been a good past week for the Pack having beaten Syracuse, Xavier, and Miami and playing Duke to the wire all away from home and they seem to have a new sense of confidence. Meanwhile the Billikens have lost 4 out of 5 down the stretch and their confidence seems to be waning. N.C. State's stronger schedule, work ethic, and confidence boost could very well be enough to help them pick this one up. 

Tulsa over UCLA: Historically speaking, the NCAA tournament has always come down to good coaching. Legacies have been built over the NCAA tournament success by big names such as Izzo, Krzyzewsk, Pitino, Donavan, Williams, Self, the list goes on and on. That being said, I don't believe Steve Alford is a great coach. He's 3-6 all time in the tournament and got knocked out by a 14th seeded Ivy League school in his last trip. I think Conference USA is a good basketball conference as well, sure they aren't as strong since the realignment but they're certainly stronger then many other smaller conferences still. The Golden Hurricane have won 11 in a row, with multiple wins over the upper tier of the conference. If you have more then 1 bracket, you should definitely consider picking Tulsa in some of them. If not, it's a toss up.

Western Michigan over Syracuse: Ok honestly I don't think this one will happen, but it was my last guess and I wanted to go big with a 14 seed. Anyone who's paying any attention to college basketball lately knows Syracuse is in a bad slump, and their zone makes them susceptible to anyone who can shoot the 3 ball. Western Michigan won the MAC, which really isn't anything special. If they played 10 times, I think WMU could win 2 or 3 of them. But in a one and done scenario, I think Syracuse's guard play and coaching will carry them through to the 3rd round.

TOURNAMENT TALK

     With the regular season concluding on Sunday, it's safe to say this year's installment of March Madness will be as unpredictable as any other. College basketball only really saw two true consistencies this year...UF and Wichita State, and that's partly due to the weakness of their conferences. There's still a great deal up in the air as we head in to conference tournament week, the two most prevalent topics being the four #1 seeds and the Bubble teams. This article will cover both topics.

The Four #1's

    With an 18-0 conference record and 23 game win streak its safe to lock the Florida Gators as a #1 seed. The only discussion will be should they not win the SEC tournament are they still deserving of the #1 overall seed in comparison to Wichita State. The Shockers have also done enough to lock up a #1 seed, finishing the year perfect at 34-0. I also feel Arizona is a lock, the late road loss to an extremely hot Oregon team doesn't sting too bad and even with an early Pac-12 exit the Wildcats were among the most consistent teams in the country. So the debate really lies in who deserves the fourth and final #1 seed.

Kansas Jayhawks

Why they are deserving: Kansas played the toughest schedule in the country, facing 19 opponents in the Top 50 RPI and beating 12 of them. The Big 12 is also extremely strong this year and a conference tournament championship would really give the Jayhawks a valid argument for a 1 seed.

Why they might not be: The 8 losses are a high number for a 1 seed, and Kansas will have a much more difficult time winning its conference tournament than Villanova. Kansas may even get jumped by an ACC or Big Ten tournament champion if it does not win the Big 12.

Villanova Wildcats

Why they could be a 1: They have the best record of the contenders at 28-3 and they've risen to #3 in both polls. They are favorites to win their conference tournament, which would bring their overall record to 31-3.

Why they could not: The rest of the Big East is not pulling their weight and they only have 1 win against the current RPI top 25. Not winning their conference tournament could likely demote Villanova to a 2 seed.

Louisville Cardinals

Why they could be a 1: Louisville is hitting their stride and possibly playing their basketball of the year right now, beating 3 top 20 opponents in the past 2 weeks, the latter 2 by double digits. Only having 5 losses keeps Louisville a strong contender as well, being defending champs doesn't hurt either. All but 1 of their losses are to top 20 teams.

Why they could not: Like 'Nova, Louisville only has 1 win against the current RPI top 25. Furthermore, the AAC is top heavy and the bottom half of the conference is absolute crap. Not winning their conference tournament would likely again eliminate the Cards.

Virginia Cavaliers

Why they could be in: The Cavs were arguably the biggest surprise of the year. Winning a competitive ACC regular season title even with the additions of Syracuse, Pitt, and Notre Dame. Winning the conference tournament outright might be impressive enough to help them leap frog Louisville, Kansas, and Villanova.

Why they could not: Despite playing in the ACC, Virginia's schedule wasn't that tough. All their quality wins came at home , which isn't that helpful in a tournament when every game is played at a neutral location. Their non conference schedule is weaker than the other contenders, and not winning the ACC would demote them to a 2 or even 3 seed.

Duke Blue Devils

Why they could be a 1: Before the mishap at Wake Forest this was theirs to lose, and could still be regained by winning the ACC. They played the 8th toughest schedule featuring 6 top 15 opponents. And the commitee LOVES Duke.

Why they could not: They didn't win their regular season conference title and will have to fight to win the postseason ACC title. They also have worse losses than the other contenders such as Notre Dame and Wake Forest.

Michigan Wolverines

Why they could be a 1: Michigan won the regular season title in the most competitive conference in college basketball. Big Ten fans feel their conference champion is entitled to a #1 seed the way SEC football fans feel their conference champion is entitled to a national title birth. Michigan played the 13th toughest schedule.

Why they could not: The 7 losses are the 2nd highest number on this list next to Kansas' 8. Even with a conference tournament victory Michigan could very well come up short due to the success of the other teams.

Bubble Watch

     Even more intriguing than the top seed battle is the battle for the last few spots in the tournament. In this segment I take 16 teams and evaluate the likelihood that they will receive an invitation to the tournament.

Pittsburg Panthers
     I think Pitt is still in. Saturday's OT thriller win against Clemson probably kept them from any real serious discussion. The 18-2 start provided enough lee way for Pitt to crash and burn at the end of the year and still retain a tournament bid. Pitt has lost 4 of its last 7, and 4 of its last 5 wins needed overtime, so clearly their struggling. But 1 win in the ACC tournament should be enough to send Pitt to the dance.

 Stanford Cardinal

At 19-11, 10-8 Pac-12 the Cardinal are in just ok shape. Not good, not bad. They should get at least one Pac-12 win by playing Washington State in the opening round, but then the rest will be a struggle. There's nothing too impressive on Stanford's resume, but nothing too harmful either. They have 3 wins over ranked opponents which is the best part of their resume. But Stanford may get cut short due to the strength and spontaneity of the Pac 12.

 Nebraska Cornhuskers
     I believe Nebraska is in after the big win against Wisconsin on Sunday night. It was a marquee win and also helped the 'Huskers finish 11-7 in a great Big 10 conference. The only thing that keeps Nebraska on the bubble is their bad losses such as UAB, Penn State, Purdue, and Illinois. But wins against Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin also cannot be overlooked. I have Nebraska in.

Xavier Musketeers
Xavier would have been ok before the bad loss to Seton Hall last week. Now the Musketeers enter the conference tournament with 2 straight losses and a tough opening round match up with Marquette. A moderate conference and non conference schedule don't add any real spice to Xavier's resume, which makes the game against Marquette a must-win. One more tournament victory past that wouldn't hurt.

Tennessee Volunteers

I think Tennessee has pretty much played their way in as of late. The Vols have won 5 of their last 6 and reached 20 wins and 11-7 in conference play. What the resume lacks is a notable win, and a good non conference schedule. But with the 20 & 11 I think Tennessee still has enough to get in with a good weekend in Atlanta.

St. Joesph's
I thought St. Joe's was A-ok until closing the regular season with a loss to La Salle. I'm not sure if the tournament has room for both St. Joe's and Dayton, and its very likely the two will meet up in the A-10 tournament. If St. Joe's beats Dayton I think they're in, or if Dayton gets upset and St. Joe's still makes the semi finals of the A-10, that would probably be enough too.

Dayton Flyers
We've already pointed out the situation with them and St. Joe's. Right now Joe's has the edge due to beating Dayton twice already this season, but as stated above that third match up could make all the difference. Dayton enters the A-10 tournament having won 9 of its last 10 games, the 10th being St. Joesph's. I like Dayton's chances if they can slide by St. Joe's this week.

Arkansas Razorbacks
Like many other teams on this list, I had the Hogs in before taking a 25 point beating to Alabama. Arkansas had won 6 in a row prior to that, now they'll need to do some work in the SEC tournament this weekend. That match up with Tennessee ought to be quite enticing.

California Golden Bears
Cal finished 10-8 in the Pac-12...but so did 4 other Pac-12 teams hoping for bids. The narrow OT win kept Cal in the relative discussion and earned them a first round bye in the Pac-12 tournament, finishing 2nd in the 5 team tie breaker. What it does set up is a possible rematch with Colorado for an NCAA tournament bid.

Minnesota Golden Gophers
I have Minnesota on the outside right now. I'm just not a big fan of teams with sub .500 conference records, regardless of the strength of the conference. The best the Gopher's resume has to offer is wins against Ohio State and Wisconsin, but those were back in January. The non conference schedule doesn't have much to offer and unless there is a deep Big 10 tournament run I don't think the Gophers will be dancing.

St. John's
Holding off Marquette in Double Overtime kept St. John's tournament hopes alive for a bit longer. Thursday's game against Providence is surely an elimination game, and the winner is not guaranteed a bid. A win in the following round over Villanova however would surely do the trick.

Providence Friars
There's not much different to say about Providence than there is for St. John's. Same situation, same match ups. The real missed opportunity was the double OT loss to Villanova last month for the Friars. But like St. John's, two wins in the Big East may do the deed.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles
What's really hurting Southern Miss is the weakness of Conference USA this year. Past that they look really good on paper; 26-5, 13-3 conference. What's also unfortunate is that aside from a loss to Louisville Southern Miss has absolutely nothing appealing when it comes to strength of schedule. No Bubble team should feel more desperate to win their conference tournament.

Florida State Seminoles
FSU would have been in much better shape if it was able to upset stumbling Syracuse at home this past Sunday. Now FSU will need to do work in the ACC tournament this weekend to give themselves a chance. Beating Maryland is a must, and then beating Virginia is the big opportunity. Two wins and an appearance in the ACC tournament semi finals might be just enough to sneak the Noles in thanks to a 9-9 conference record and a strong schedule.

Missouri TigersI don't think Missouri's chances are high. With Tennessee and Arkansas ahead of them on the bubble right now Missouri's hope is either that both of them will stumble, or that the SEC by some miracle receives a fifth bid. Furthermore, if Missouri wins its first tournament game against Texas A&M, it will have to deal with Florida in the quarterfinals. Quite a challenge, but quite an opportunity as well, especially given Florida's recent SEC tournament struggles.

Georgetown Hoyas
There's still hope for Georgetown thanks to a win over Creighton last week. The Hoyas still probably need at least 2 victories in the Big East tournament and it wouldn't hurt if Providence and St. John's fell out early as well. That's not too unlikely a scenario though since Georgetown's first 2 games are DePaul and a Creighton team they just beat and the Providence/St. John's winner will have a semi final date with Villanova.