NCAA TOURNAMENT CRYSTAL BALL

     "Spontaneous", "Inconsistent", and "Unpredictable" are all words that accurately depict the 2013-14 NCAA Division 1 college basketball regular season. The same adjectives can be used to describe pretty much any NCAA tournament. This time of year leaves America buzzing, as millions of people will be filling out brackets in work pools, against their peers, and/or online. 2014 is even more significant because Warren Buffet and Quicken Loans have offered $1 billion to 15 million challengers who will attempt to fill out a perfect bracket. Regardless, the NCAA tournament is the greatest tournament in all of sports, in fact if I were in charge the first 2 days would be federal holidays. While I will not be providing a carbon copy of my bracket, I have included 5 bold predictions, 5 Dark Horse teams to watch for, and 5 Upset Alerts for the first slate of games.

5 Bold Predictions:

1. Wichita State will not make the Final 4: I'd be crying myself to sleep if my team was in the Midwest region. The top 4 seeds are Wichita State, Michigan, Duke, and Louisville. Three of these teams made the Final 4 last year, (the fourth is Duke), 3 of them won their regular season and/or conference tournaments, one of them is 32-0. All good things must come to an end, and what goes up must come down, so I feel Wichita's streak is subject to a ticking time bomb at this point. The Shockers also finished a whopping 0-0 against RPI top 25 teams, and only have 1 win against a tournament team (Tennessee: one of the last teams into the field). Between their "soft as a pillow" regular season schedule and the level of competition in the midwest region, I strongly urge you to not pick Wichita State to win this region.

2. A 12 Seed will beat a 5 seed: It's happened 12 of the last 13 years so it might not be completely accurate to call this a BOLD prediction. But when I look across the board I see overrated 5's and underrated 12's. St. Louis for example, has dropped 4 of it's last 5. VCU is also streaky, and Oklahoma really hasn't done anything special all year. Now lets evaluate the 12's. Stephen F. Austin has a 28 GAME WIN STREAK (that's longer the Florida's), Harvard is a dangerous 12 seed who made it to the 3rd round last year as a 14 seed and I think N.C. State showed how dangerous they are this past week in Greensboro. 

3. A "Play-In-Game" Team will make the 3rd Round: Also not too bold since it's happened once every year since the reformation from 65 to 68. I'll reiterate N.C. State, they beat Syracuse and played Duke to the last minute. They have (in my opinion) one of the 15 best players in the nation in T.J. Warren and certainly one of the best scorers. If they beat Xavier, they get a struggling St. Louis team next. I would also advise considering Tennessee. The Vols had won 5 in a row before falling to UF in the SEC semi finals and are playing their best basketball. Their play in game is against Iowa, who had lost 6 out of 7. The winner then gets UMass, an overrated 6th seed out of the A10.

4. No Big East School's Past the Sweet 16: Now this is a bold prediction. The Big East dominated the NCAA tournament before the realignment. Now the conference only has 4 teams in the field (Villanova, Creighton, Providence, Xavier). The only real threats I see in that group are 'Nova and Creighton. Villanova's path to the Elite 8 would be a difficult one, even as a 2 seed, as it includes the Uconn/St. Joe's winner and then likely either Iowa State or North Carolina. Creighton has the more favorable path as a 3 seed in the West, Creighton lives and dies by Doug McDermott and one bad game from him may be all it takes to send the Jays home early. 

5. No Perfect Brackets in America after Sunday: Let's face reality guys, the odds of getting a perfect NCAA tournament bracket are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. That’s 9.2 quintillion. If everyone on earth filled out 100 brackets, it would theoretically take 13 million years to get a perfect bracket.  If all the world’s population filled out just one bracket, it could take 1.3 billion years. That means dinosaurs that lived 65 million years ago could have been filling out brackets and we’d still just be 5% of the way to perfection. Every year there's that one team that likes to rain on everyone's parade. The names Florida Gulf Coast, George Mason, and Butler should definately ring a bell. If anyone has a perfect bracket still running going into next week I'll be greatly shocked.

5 Dark Horses

1. Oklahoma State: Many people forget that at one point this year the Cowboys were a top 5 team. They have possibly the best player in America in Marcus Smart and if you factor out his suspension the Cowboys were 20-8, 8-7 in the Big 12. Of their 12 losses, 4 came in overtime, and all but 2 were by 6 points or less. Without the suspension this team was probably a 6/7 seed at worst. Now they sit at a very dangerous 9. If you're looking to knock out a 1 seed early, your best pick is Oklahoma State over Arizona.

2. Uconn: Every so often we see that 1 player who has a chance to absolutely take over the tournament. Kemba Walker, Steph Curry, and even Larry Bird are great examples. Shabazz Napier has the potential to be "that guy" in 2014. Napier leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists, and he had a habit of hitting big shots. Uconn is playing its best basketball as of late, and they have all the tools. We've already pointed out Napier, Boatright is also an underrated, talented guard, Brimah is a monster in the paint and makes it difficult for other teams to score, Giffey is shooting lights out, and Daniels is versatile as well. Uconn expected at least a 5 seed after making the AAC championship, disrespecting them by offering them a 7 may have awakened the beast.

3. Baylor: Baylor peaked in the Big 12 tournament, which we thought they would win before Iowa State made their 2nd half charge. Prior to that the Bears had won 10 of their last 11 and seem to really have it going during the right time of year. They're a good rebounding team and their size and athleticism should continue to give opponents trouble. The Bears are the most dangerous 6 seed in the field, and they've been placed in the weakest region (Wisconsin, Creighton, Nebraska). An Elite 8 run is definitely in the realm of possibility for Baylor.

4. Dayton: A lot of people feel Dayton should not have even been in the tournament. I on the other hand see a real opportunity for the Flyers to make some noise. The last time Dayton lost to a team not named St. Joseph's was back on January 25th. They also have a favorable draw. They'll stark with a streaky Ohio State team, then play a slumping Syracuse team, and then possibly a Kansas team without Joel Embiid if they haven't been knocked out already. With people frowning upon Dayton's entry should allow Dayton to play with a chip on its shoulder, making them a tough match up for any team.

5. Oregon: Remember when Oregon was 3-8 in the Pac-12? No team had quite the late turn around the Ducks had, who then won 8 straight (including a win over top seed Arizona) before losing to eventual Pac-12 tournament champion Arizona. Like Baylor, the Ducks are a team peaking at the right time of year. They sit in the same weak draw as Baylor which as I stated earlier is a draw of opportunity for a high seed to make some noise. Let's not forget last year's sweet 16 run as an 11 seed.

5 Upset Alerts

Stephen F. Austin over VCU: The last time SFA lost a game was before Thanksgiving. The Lumberjacks post the nations 3rd best record at 31-2, only behind top seeds Florida and Wichita State. They've won 28 straight, but they also played one of the weakest schedules in Divison 1. Seriously, kudos to playing the 319th toughest schedule, weakest of any team in the tournament. Regardless, SFU's 28 game win streak can't be overlooked and VCU lost 4 of its last 11 as well so there is opportunity for an upset here. 

Dayton over Ohio State: You probably saw this coming with Dayton as one of my dark horse picks. Not only is this a tournament game, but it's also an in-state rivalry, the only in-state match up in the 2nd round. All the emotional pull favors Dayton, a small Ohio school trying to knock out it's older brother from the Big Ten. Ohio State has made 4 straight Sweet 16 appearances, the longest of any in the country and there's some pressure in protecting that streak. Regardless, the winner of this game has a good chance against Syracuse too.

N.C. State over St. Louis: I can go ahead and lock this in now since N.C. State took care of Xavier in Tuesday's play in game. The Wolfpack are working hard to prove they belong in this field, their hard work in Greensboro earned them the tournament's very last invitation. It's been a good past week for the Pack having beaten Syracuse, Xavier, and Miami and playing Duke to the wire all away from home and they seem to have a new sense of confidence. Meanwhile the Billikens have lost 4 out of 5 down the stretch and their confidence seems to be waning. N.C. State's stronger schedule, work ethic, and confidence boost could very well be enough to help them pick this one up. 

Tulsa over UCLA: Historically speaking, the NCAA tournament has always come down to good coaching. Legacies have been built over the NCAA tournament success by big names such as Izzo, Krzyzewsk, Pitino, Donavan, Williams, Self, the list goes on and on. That being said, I don't believe Steve Alford is a great coach. He's 3-6 all time in the tournament and got knocked out by a 14th seeded Ivy League school in his last trip. I think Conference USA is a good basketball conference as well, sure they aren't as strong since the realignment but they're certainly stronger then many other smaller conferences still. The Golden Hurricane have won 11 in a row, with multiple wins over the upper tier of the conference. If you have more then 1 bracket, you should definitely consider picking Tulsa in some of them. If not, it's a toss up.

Western Michigan over Syracuse: Ok honestly I don't think this one will happen, but it was my last guess and I wanted to go big with a 14 seed. Anyone who's paying any attention to college basketball lately knows Syracuse is in a bad slump, and their zone makes them susceptible to anyone who can shoot the 3 ball. Western Michigan won the MAC, which really isn't anything special. If they played 10 times, I think WMU could win 2 or 3 of them. But in a one and done scenario, I think Syracuse's guard play and coaching will carry them through to the 3rd round.