TOURNAMENT TALK
With the regular season concluding on Sunday, it's safe to say this year's installment of March Madness will be as unpredictable as any other. College basketball only really saw two true consistencies this year...UF and Wichita State, and that's partly due to the weakness of their conferences. There's still a great deal up in the air as we head in to conference tournament week, the two most prevalent topics being the four #1 seeds and the Bubble teams. This article will cover both topics.
The Four #1's
With an 18-0 conference record and 23 game win streak its safe to lock the Florida Gators as a #1 seed. The only discussion will be should they not win the SEC tournament are they still deserving of the #1 overall seed in comparison to Wichita State. The Shockers have also done enough to lock up a #1 seed, finishing the year perfect at 34-0. I also feel Arizona is a lock, the late road loss to an extremely hot Oregon team doesn't sting too bad and even with an early Pac-12 exit the Wildcats were among the most consistent teams in the country. So the debate really lies in who deserves the fourth and final #1 seed.
Kansas Jayhawks
Why they are deserving: Kansas played the toughest schedule in the country, facing 19 opponents in the Top 50 RPI and beating 12 of them. The Big 12 is also extremely strong this year and a conference tournament championship would really give the Jayhawks a valid argument for a 1 seed.
Why they might not be: The 8 losses are a high number for a 1 seed, and Kansas will have a much more difficult time winning its conference tournament than Villanova. Kansas may even get jumped by an ACC or Big Ten tournament champion if it does not win the Big 12.
Villanova Wildcats
Why they could be a 1: They have the best record of the contenders at 28-3 and they've risen to #3 in both polls. They are favorites to win their conference tournament, which would bring their overall record to 31-3.
Why they could not: The rest of the Big East is not pulling their weight and they only have 1 win against the current RPI top 25. Not winning their conference tournament could likely demote Villanova to a 2 seed.
Louisville Cardinals
Why they could be a 1: Louisville is hitting their stride and possibly playing their basketball of the year right now, beating 3 top 20 opponents in the past 2 weeks, the latter 2 by double digits. Only having 5 losses keeps Louisville a strong contender as well, being defending champs doesn't hurt either. All but 1 of their losses are to top 20 teams.
Why they could not: Like 'Nova, Louisville only has 1 win against the current RPI top 25. Furthermore, the AAC is top heavy and the bottom half of the conference is absolute crap. Not winning their conference tournament would likely again eliminate the Cards.
Virginia Cavaliers
Why they could be in: The Cavs were arguably the biggest surprise of the year. Winning a competitive ACC regular season title even with the additions of Syracuse, Pitt, and Notre Dame. Winning the conference tournament outright might be impressive enough to help them leap frog Louisville, Kansas, and Villanova.
Why they could not: Despite playing in the ACC, Virginia's schedule wasn't that tough. All their quality wins came at home , which isn't that helpful in a tournament when every game is played at a neutral location. Their non conference schedule is weaker than the other contenders, and not winning the ACC would demote them to a 2 or even 3 seed.
Duke Blue Devils
Why they could be a 1: Before the mishap at Wake Forest this was theirs to lose, and could still be regained by winning the ACC. They played the 8th toughest schedule featuring 6 top 15 opponents. And the commitee LOVES Duke.
Why they could not: They didn't win their regular season conference title and will have to fight to win the postseason ACC title. They also have worse losses than the other contenders such as Notre Dame and Wake Forest.
Michigan Wolverines
Why they could be a 1: Michigan won the regular season title in the most competitive conference in college basketball. Big Ten fans feel their conference champion is entitled to a #1 seed the way SEC football fans feel their conference champion is entitled to a national title birth. Michigan played the 13th toughest schedule.
Why they could not: The 7 losses are the 2nd highest number on this list next to Kansas' 8. Even with a conference tournament victory Michigan could very well come up short due to the success of the other teams.
Bubble Watch
Even more intriguing than the top seed battle is the battle for the last few spots in the tournament. In this segment I take 16 teams and evaluate the likelihood that they will receive an invitation to the tournament.
Pittsburg Panthers
I think Pitt is still in. Saturday's OT thriller win against Clemson probably kept them from any real serious discussion. The 18-2 start provided enough lee way for Pitt to crash and burn at the end of the year and still retain a tournament bid. Pitt has lost 4 of its last 7, and 4 of its last 5 wins needed overtime, so clearly their struggling. But 1 win in the ACC tournament should be enough to send Pitt to the dance.
I think Pitt is still in. Saturday's OT thriller win against Clemson probably kept them from any real serious discussion. The 18-2 start provided enough lee way for Pitt to crash and burn at the end of the year and still retain a tournament bid. Pitt has lost 4 of its last 7, and 4 of its last 5 wins needed overtime, so clearly their struggling. But 1 win in the ACC tournament should be enough to send Pitt to the dance.
Stanford Cardinal
At 19-11, 10-8 Pac-12 the Cardinal are in just ok shape. Not good, not bad. They should get at least one Pac-12 win by playing Washington State in the opening round, but then the rest will be a struggle. There's nothing too impressive on Stanford's resume, but nothing too harmful either. They have 3 wins over ranked opponents which is the best part of their resume. But Stanford may get cut short due to the strength and spontaneity of the Pac 12.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
I believe Nebraska is in after the big win against Wisconsin on Sunday night. It was a marquee win and also helped the 'Huskers finish 11-7 in a great Big 10 conference. The only thing that keeps Nebraska on the bubble is their bad losses such as UAB, Penn State, Purdue, and Illinois. But wins against Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin also cannot be overlooked. I have Nebraska in.
I believe Nebraska is in after the big win against Wisconsin on Sunday night. It was a marquee win and also helped the 'Huskers finish 11-7 in a great Big 10 conference. The only thing that keeps Nebraska on the bubble is their bad losses such as UAB, Penn State, Purdue, and Illinois. But wins against Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin also cannot be overlooked. I have Nebraska in.
Xavier Musketeers
Xavier would have been ok before the bad loss to Seton Hall last week. Now the Musketeers enter the conference tournament with 2 straight losses and a tough opening round match up with Marquette. A moderate conference and non conference schedule don't add any real spice to Xavier's resume, which makes the game against Marquette a must-win. One more tournament victory past that wouldn't hurt.
Xavier would have been ok before the bad loss to Seton Hall last week. Now the Musketeers enter the conference tournament with 2 straight losses and a tough opening round match up with Marquette. A moderate conference and non conference schedule don't add any real spice to Xavier's resume, which makes the game against Marquette a must-win. One more tournament victory past that wouldn't hurt.
Tennessee Volunteers
I think Tennessee has pretty much played their way in as of late. The Vols have won 5 of their last 6 and reached 20 wins and 11-7 in conference play. What the resume lacks is a notable win, and a good non conference schedule. But with the 20 & 11 I think Tennessee still has enough to get in with a good weekend in Atlanta.
St. Joesph's
I thought St. Joe's was A-ok until closing the regular season with a loss to La Salle. I'm not sure if the tournament has room for both St. Joe's and Dayton, and its very likely the two will meet up in the A-10 tournament. If St. Joe's beats Dayton I think they're in, or if Dayton gets upset and St. Joe's still makes the semi finals of the A-10, that would probably be enough too.
Dayton Flyers
We've already pointed out the situation with them and St. Joe's. Right now Joe's has the edge due to beating Dayton twice already this season, but as stated above that third match up could make all the difference. Dayton enters the A-10 tournament having won 9 of its last 10 games, the 10th being St. Joesph's. I like Dayton's chances if they can slide by St. Joe's this week.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Like many other teams on this list, I had the Hogs in before taking a 25 point beating to Alabama. Arkansas had won 6 in a row prior to that, now they'll need to do some work in the SEC tournament this weekend. That match up with Tennessee ought to be quite enticing.
I thought St. Joe's was A-ok until closing the regular season with a loss to La Salle. I'm not sure if the tournament has room for both St. Joe's and Dayton, and its very likely the two will meet up in the A-10 tournament. If St. Joe's beats Dayton I think they're in, or if Dayton gets upset and St. Joe's still makes the semi finals of the A-10, that would probably be enough too.
We've already pointed out the situation with them and St. Joe's. Right now Joe's has the edge due to beating Dayton twice already this season, but as stated above that third match up could make all the difference. Dayton enters the A-10 tournament having won 9 of its last 10 games, the 10th being St. Joesph's. I like Dayton's chances if they can slide by St. Joe's this week.
Like many other teams on this list, I had the Hogs in before taking a 25 point beating to Alabama. Arkansas had won 6 in a row prior to that, now they'll need to do some work in the SEC tournament this weekend. That match up with Tennessee ought to be quite enticing.
California Golden Bears
Cal finished 10-8 in the Pac-12...but so did 4 other Pac-12 teams hoping for bids. The narrow OT win kept Cal in the relative discussion and earned them a first round bye in the Pac-12 tournament, finishing 2nd in the 5 team tie breaker. What it does set up is a possible rematch with Colorado for an NCAA tournament bid.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
I have Minnesota on the outside right now. I'm just not a big fan of teams with sub .500 conference records, regardless of the strength of the conference. The best the Gopher's resume has to offer is wins against Ohio State and Wisconsin, but those were back in January. The non conference schedule doesn't have much to offer and unless there is a deep Big 10 tournament run I don't think the Gophers will be dancing.
St. John's
Holding off Marquette in Double Overtime kept St. John's tournament hopes alive for a bit longer. Thursday's game against Providence is surely an elimination game, and the winner is not guaranteed a bid. A win in the following round over Villanova however would surely do the trick.
Providence Friars
There's not much different to say about Providence than there is for St. John's. Same situation, same match ups. The real missed opportunity was the double OT loss to Villanova last month for the Friars. But like St. John's, two wins in the Big East may do the deed.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
What's really hurting Southern Miss is the weakness of Conference USA this year. Past that they look really good on paper; 26-5, 13-3 conference. What's also unfortunate is that aside from a loss to Louisville Southern Miss has absolutely nothing appealing when it comes to strength of schedule. No Bubble team should feel more desperate to win their conference tournament.
Florida State Seminoles
FSU would have been in much better shape if it was able to upset stumbling Syracuse at home this past Sunday. Now FSU will need to do work in the ACC tournament this weekend to give themselves a chance. Beating Maryland is a must, and then beating Virginia is the big opportunity. Two wins and an appearance in the ACC tournament semi finals might be just enough to sneak the Noles in thanks to a 9-9 conference record and a strong schedule.
Missouri TigersI don't think Missouri's chances are high. With Tennessee and Arkansas ahead of them on the bubble right now Missouri's hope is either that both of them will stumble, or that the SEC by some miracle receives a fifth bid. Furthermore, if Missouri wins its first tournament game against Texas A&M, it will have to deal with Florida in the quarterfinals. Quite a challenge, but quite an opportunity as well, especially given Florida's recent SEC tournament struggles.
Georgetown Hoyas
There's still hope for Georgetown thanks to a win over Creighton last week. The Hoyas still probably need at least 2 victories in the Big East tournament and it wouldn't hurt if Providence and St. John's fell out early as well. That's not too unlikely a scenario though since Georgetown's first 2 games are DePaul and a Creighton team they just beat and the Providence/St. John's winner will have a semi final date with Villanova.
Cal finished 10-8 in the Pac-12...but so did 4 other Pac-12 teams hoping for bids. The narrow OT win kept Cal in the relative discussion and earned them a first round bye in the Pac-12 tournament, finishing 2nd in the 5 team tie breaker. What it does set up is a possible rematch with Colorado for an NCAA tournament bid.
I have Minnesota on the outside right now. I'm just not a big fan of teams with sub .500 conference records, regardless of the strength of the conference. The best the Gopher's resume has to offer is wins against Ohio State and Wisconsin, but those were back in January. The non conference schedule doesn't have much to offer and unless there is a deep Big 10 tournament run I don't think the Gophers will be dancing.
Holding off Marquette in Double Overtime kept St. John's tournament hopes alive for a bit longer. Thursday's game against Providence is surely an elimination game, and the winner is not guaranteed a bid. A win in the following round over Villanova however would surely do the trick.
There's not much different to say about Providence than there is for St. John's. Same situation, same match ups. The real missed opportunity was the double OT loss to Villanova last month for the Friars. But like St. John's, two wins in the Big East may do the deed.
What's really hurting Southern Miss is the weakness of Conference USA this year. Past that they look really good on paper; 26-5, 13-3 conference. What's also unfortunate is that aside from a loss to Louisville Southern Miss has absolutely nothing appealing when it comes to strength of schedule. No Bubble team should feel more desperate to win their conference tournament.
FSU would have been in much better shape if it was able to upset stumbling Syracuse at home this past Sunday. Now FSU will need to do work in the ACC tournament this weekend to give themselves a chance. Beating Maryland is a must, and then beating Virginia is the big opportunity. Two wins and an appearance in the ACC tournament semi finals might be just enough to sneak the Noles in thanks to a 9-9 conference record and a strong schedule.
There's still hope for Georgetown thanks to a win over Creighton last week. The Hoyas still probably need at least 2 victories in the Big East tournament and it wouldn't hurt if Providence and St. John's fell out early as well. That's not too unlikely a scenario though since Georgetown's first 2 games are DePaul and a Creighton team they just beat and the Providence/St. John's winner will have a semi final date with Villanova.
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