WEEK 2 PREVIEW

     If you're into sheer, utter, disorderly, chaos, then Thursday through Sunday's events may have felt like a Utopia for you. The events of last week led to no perfect brackets, 3 double digits in the sweet 16, and more then half of the sweet 16 coming from 3 conferences (Big Ten, Pac 10, SEC, 3 each). Each team remaining only stands 2 games away from the Final 4, 4 games away from a National Title. This blog will include a reflection on lasts weeks predictions, and some new ones as well. 

Things I got right

The Dark Horses: Of the 5 teams I named as my Dark Horse contenders last week, 3 of them made the sweet 16. Dayton proved they belong in the Dance with emotional, last second, hard-fought victories over Ohio State and Syracuse. They now present themselves with a prime opportunity against 10th seeded Stanford on Thursday in Memphis. Baylor turned some heads with the 30 point beating of Doug McDermott and Creighton and should definately not be counted out of winning the West. And Uconn rode Shabazz Napier to the Sweet 16 and now gets 2 games in Madison Square Garden, which is the closest thing to a home game you can ask for. Oregon put up a valiant effort, and it looked like my 4th Dark Horse would make the sweet 16 before Wisconsin shot lights out the last 20 minutes. Oklahoma State was my lone mistake.

The weakness of the Big East: I made the claim no Big East schools would make it past the sweet 16. That bet is already correct seeing as no Big East schools made the Sweet 16, and went a combined 2-4 in the tournament. Creighton was probably the most disappointing, getting ran out of the building in the 2nd worst deficit of the tournament. Not much better can be said for 'Nova or Xavier, who lost by double digits against teams seeded 7th or higher. Providence gets the most respect for playing UNC to the wire, though a 2nd round exit is nothing to be proud of by any means.

The 12's: The 12 seeds went 3-1, and would have gone 4-0 if N.C. State could make free throws. To play Devil's advocate, they did all lose in the following round, but it was a good run nevertheless. Harvard was the best performance in my opinion, beating an athletic Cincinnati team and then giving Michigan State a real scare by not quitting in the 2nd half. Stephen F. Austin gets an honorable mention for the 4 point play over time thriller.

The Favorites: My main bracket still has all of its Final 4 and 6 of its elite 8 still in tact. Kansas and Duke were my only mistakes there. My Final 4 are Florida, Michigan State, Louisville, and Arizona and that still looks fairly reasonable as of now, though I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Uconn to shock the world.

Things I got Wrong

Stanford: When I was considering Cinderellas and Dark Horses, Stanford didn't cross my mind for one second. I did have Dayton in that region and if you'd asked me for a 2nd Dark Horse in that region I would have told you New Mexico. The Cardinal completely shocked me with the win over Kansas and now they have a legitimate shot of getting to the Elite 8. Props to those who called this, you are a rare breed.

Duke: But weren't we all? The Blue Devils are a perennial Final 4 contender but every so often they do something really disappointing. I thought after 2012's slip up against Lehigh Duke would be ok for a few years but Mercer had other ideas. No complaints though, small schools knocking off Duke displays March Madness in its finest form.

The Strength of the SEC: The SEC stands alone as the only perfect conference remaining in the tournament at 7-0. To be fair, aside from knocking off Wichita State, all of their wins came against teams seeded 9th or lower, but quite an accomplishment regardless. Florida's path to North Texas looks pretty favorable, Kentucky and Tennessee will face their toughest tests though with the defending National Title and Runner Up all meeting up this weekend. 

The Weakness of the ACC: A conference that had 6 bids and 3 top 3 seeds in the tournament only sends one school to the Sweet 16 (conference champ Virginia). What makes it even tougher is the fact all losses besides Pittsburg came down to the last shot. Syracuse had a 1 point loss to Dayton, N.C. State lost in OT to St. Louis via missed free throws, North Carolina blew a late lead to Iowa State, and Duke let Mercer slip right through their fingers.

Ranking the Top 16

16. San Diego State: It's not the Aztec's did anything wrong, it's that they did nothing to truly impress me in their run to the Sweet 16 and that's why they rank last on my list. Beating North Dakota State and New Mexico State really doesn't say much and Arizona is going to be a whole different ball game for the Aztecs. While a Sweet 16 appearance has certainly been a nice consolation to last years early exit at the hands of 14th seeded Harvard, I don't see it going any further.

15. UCLA: Like San Diego State, the Bruins made it to Memphis by knocking out low seeded mid-major schools Tulsa and Stephen F. Austin. The Bruins earned their 4 seed by winning the Pac-12 tournament and knocking out heavyweight Arizona, so they shouldn't be ruled out by any means. There's no weak links left at this point in the season, but I'm unsure if UCLA has the fire power to get past the tenacious D of UF. Though if they do, they'll be a heavy favorite to get to the Final 4.

14. Stanford: What the Cardinal pulled off this past week was spectacular, reaching the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2008. But when you reflect on it, they beat an overseeded New Mexico team and then a Kansas team playing without Joel Embiid, who would have been a top 3 pick had he stayed healthy. Johnny Dawkins may have saved his job with this run, and he relies on upperclassmen leadership from Chasson Randle and Dwight Powell to keep it going. But veteran leadership has historically been one of the greatest advantages in the NCAA tournament, it could certainly prove very valuable against mid major Dayton on Thursday.

13. Dayton: Which brings me to Dayton. On the one hand, the Flyers reached the sweet 16 by defeating 2 overseeded, struggling teams. On the contrary, Dayton knocked off two of the best programs in College Basketball today. Dayton prevented Ohio State from reaching its 5th straight Sweet 16 and then knocked off future Hall of Famer Jim Boehiem and the Syracuse Orange to set up a date with Stanford in Memphis. The Flyers are one of the hottest teams in the nation right now, the last team they lost to a team not named St. Joseph's was over 2 months ago. Dayton fought hard to make the tournament, and that same work ethic has carried them to the Sweet 16 as the last standing team from the state of Ohio. I think I see an Elite 8 in Dayton's future as well.

12. Kentucky: I may be once again under rating Kentucky and the SEC, but I feel like people are overrating them due to 2 good games: a close loss to Florida and a win against a Wichita State team who played no one all year. Before that, I think we all expected better from Coach Calipari and his annually high ranked recruiting class, and 2 games isn't enough to sell me on the Wildcats. I will however say this: Kentucky does have a new found confidence with their young talent, and they'll definitely be fired up to go play in state rival and defending national champ Louisville on Friday, a team they already beat earlier this year. If we see that team, a possible final 4 fun could be in store. If we see the Kentucky team that got beat twice by Arkansas, then Friday might be the end of the road.

11. Uconn: Statistically, the odds of Uconn winning the National Championship were less than 1% when the tournament began, but it seems to become more and more believable with each game the Huskies play. Shabazz Napier reminds us that 1 player can spark a surreal tournament run for an underdog (Kemba Walker anyone?). His 24 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals were just enough to help the Huskies clear St. Joe's, and then his 21 2nd half points were enough to carry the Huskies past Villanova on Saturday. If Napier doesn't show up to play in 1 of these next 4 games, Uconn can pack their bags. If the Huskies can milk him for all he's worth, they'll have at least a chance no matter who they play. 

#10 Tennessee: Like Dayton, Tennessee is a hot team peaking at the right time. The Vols have won 9 out of 10 with the only loss coming to the top seeded Gators by single digits. Though the play-in game is no advantage, it seems as if it's given Tennessee a sense of confidence having won an extra tournament game than everyone else. The down side of this is none of those victories were anything to get overly excited about (Umass, Xavier, and Mercer). Michigan will certainly test Tennessee in ways their SEC opponents could not, but Tennessee certainly has a chance with its level of confidence and emotional pull. 

#9. Wisconsin: Many of us thought the Badgers were done trailing Oregon by 12 and allowing 49 points in the half. Then the Badgers all found the same rhythm and shot lights out to mount the comeback and book their Sweet 16 ticket. Bo Ryan has put together the best offensvie Wisconsin team I've ever seen, but their downfall will be their inability to play Final 4 quality defense against teams like Baylor and Arizona. However, if we see Wisconsin play similar basketball to their 2nd half against Oregon, all bets are off.

#8 Baylor: If winning 8 out of 9 wasn't enough, the 30 point statement win against Creighton should have helped you wake up and smell the roses. The Bears might be the most confident team in the field right now, rebounding from a 1-6 conference start all the way to the Sweet 16. They won their first 2 games by an average of 22 points and are playing sound on both sides of the ball. I think their ability to play both offense and defense can carry them past Wisconsin and give them a real chance against Arizona as well. Baylor is the dark horse to win this entire tournament right now.

#7 Iowa State: The Big 12 tournament allowed Iowa State to reach its peak and play with a lot of confidence. Furthermore there's no quit in them, as 2nd half comebacks have become sort of a regular thing for Iowa State over the last few weeks. The one thing that may rain on the parade for the Cyclones is the season ending injury to starting power forward Georges Niang, who fractured his foot Thursday against NC Central. Niang was a key component of the Cyclone's late success, he averaged over 20 points per game in the Cyclone's last 5 games leading up to the tournament, 16.4 on the entire season. Iowa State is still very good without Niang, and was still able to pull it together and score a comeback victory over UNC on Sunday. But to imagine the Cyclones still winning a national championship without a starter and leading scorer is a bit tough. 

#6 Michigan: Honestly I could see the top 6 going in any order, that's how competitive college basketball has been this year. Michigan gets the short end of the stick because I don't believe they are as good as they were last year. Wolverine fans will miss Burke's ability to step up and take over a game and the superstar level of Burke and Hardaway Jr isn't quite matched by Stauskus & co. I could be wrong, more team oriented basketball could be just what the Wolverines need to get over the hump and win a national title, like I said, this was a real toss up.

#5 Arizona: Arizona finds themselves in a good position by playing great offense and defense. The Wildcats have all the tools of a team that can win it all, they're athletic, deep, defend well for 40 minutes, and have multiple guys who can score in double figures on a consistent basis. Sure the Wildcats let Weber State hang around in the opening round, that was expected. The 23 point win over Gonzaga was what really got people believing in this team's ability again. They should beat the Aztecs, then we'll see what happens against Wisconsin or Baylor.

#4. Louisville: So I'll be honest, I had the Cardinals winning the whole thing. But after less than impressive victories over Manhattan and St. Louis I'm not as sure as I was when we started this thing. We can call Manhattan almost beating the Cardinals a fluke and the result of almost identical play styles, but then again the Jaspers shot 45% against one of the best defenses in the country. In the following round Louisville was able to escape due in part to the Billikens poor shooting (0/15 from 3). I am a firm believer that in order to win this tournament, you do have to win at least one game you don't really deserve. Louisville may have done it twice. The rest of the field had their chance, it may be time for the Cardinals to wreak havoc.

#3. Virginia: The ACC's last hope is also one of the strongest teams left in this field. The Cavs played consistently great basketball all year and hit their peak in the conference tournament. The opening half against Coastal Carolina was rather concerning, but everything after that to this point was reassuring. UVA has a lot going for them: they limit their turnovers, they play incredible defense, and they can score in a variety of ways. This team is fundamentally sound, but their Achilles Heel at the end of the day may be the inexperience of both the players and the coaching staff. Sweet 16's are a relatively new concept to Virginia after all.

#2. Michigan State: Now that Sparty is finally healthy again, it's returned to championship caliber form. They have probably the best coach in the field in Tom Izzo, who's reached 6 Final 4's. Branden Dawson is alive again, and Adrien Payne has led the offense after scoring 41 against Delaware. The highest scoring performance in a tournament game in 10 years. The Spartans offense has been functioning like a well oiled machine, shooting over 50% for the tournament thus far. The lone concern going forward is the ability to take care of the ball. The Spartans turned it over 25 times in the first week of play, a number to be concerned about as Sparty faces defensively sound Virginia on Friday.

#1. Florida: This pains me to write as an FSU student, but Florida is playing the best basketball right now. Sure the first half against Albany was rocky, but it's looked pretty damn good since then. The Gators won both of their first 2 games by double digits, held teams to 55 points or less, and forced teams to play thier style with their full game full court pressure. They're athletic and filled with guys who can score and make big shots and that's why they haven't lost since December 2nd. The Gators are excelling in every fundamental of the game, and the road ahead looks bright with only UCLA and a double digit seed standing between them and the Final 4. Elite 8's have been UF's kryptonite in recent years, but I don't think Dayton or Stanford have what it takes to beat this version of UF. The SEC schedule was weak, but Florida did well to prepare itself for this point by scheduling a brutal non conference schedule that included Kansas, Wisconsin, Uconn, and Memphis; 4 teams who all made the 3rd round. I can't say for certain Florida will win this tournament, but a Final 4 trip seems pretty likely.